Kenya Met says Indian Ocean conditions influence whether El Niño brings heavy rainfall, as Nairobi waits and Kisumu experiences flooding.
Nairobi and some other parts of Kenya may wait longer for El Niño rains or miss them altogether, Kenya Met has explained. The authority says the climate phenomenon does not automatically bring heavy rainfall to every area.
Eastern Region Meteorological Services Deputy Director Richard Muita explained that other climate factors also influence rainfall. Speaking on Spice FM, he addressed public questions about why Nairobi had not received the expected downpours.
Muita said the World Meteorological Organisation had placed the likelihood of El Niño at nearly 100 per cent. However, that probability does not guarantee heavier-than-normal rain across Kenya.
Why El Niño rains depend on Indian Ocean conditions
El Niño develops in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns worldwide. However, Muita stressed that it is a driver of weather changes, rather than rainfall itself.
For Kenya, conditions in the Indian Ocean also help determine how much rain falls. Muita pointed to the Indian Ocean Dipole, which influences rainfall patterns across East Africa.
When El Niño coincides with favourable Indian Ocean temperatures, the combination can bring substantial rainfall to Kenya. Warmer-than-normal waters along the East African coast can support those conditions, he explained.
However, strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific may not deliver the anticipated rain if Indian Ocean conditions are unfavourable. Muita said this interaction helps explain why rainfall has fallen short of expectations in some areas.
Kenya Met urges continued preparations
Muita compared the current situation with 2015, when Kenya experienced strong El Niño conditions. Unfavourable Indian Ocean conditions nevertheless limited the amount of rain the country received, he said.
He said a similar combination was emerging again, despite expectations of substantial rainfall. His explanation highlighted why the strength of El Niño alone cannot determine Kenya’s rainfall outcome.
Meanwhile, the experience has differed across the country. Although Nairobi has not received the expected rains, Kisumu is among the areas that have recorded substantial rainfall, flooding and property losses.
Kenya Met says it remains too early to conclude whether the whole country will experience the anticipated rains. The authority therefore urged the government and the public to maintain adequate preparations and keep monitoring weather updates.
