Warm nights and dusty winds have raised weather concerns in Nairobi.
Residents report uncomfortable nights and dust clouds as forecasters project above-normal temperatures and uneven short rains.
Nairobi weather concerns are growing as residents report unusually warm nights and strong, dust-laden winds. The conditions have disrupted the capital’s typically cool evenings as residents await the short rains.
On October 22, strong evening winds swept through South C and Nairobi West, lifting thick dust clouds. Visibility dropped sharply, while some residents who initially expected rain instead found themselves surrounded by dust.
Nairobi resident Carpathia Mzungu described the conditions as unlike anything she had experienced during six years in the city. She said the winds arrived suddenly, with dust engulfing the two neighbourhoods.
The episode also prompted online questions about environmental changes and whether El Niño could explain the conditions. However, those questions did not establish a cause for the winds.
Nairobi weather forecast points to continued warmth
The Kenya Meteorological Department forecast daytime temperatures of 29°C to 31°C for Nairobi between October 23 and 27. It also projected partly cloudy nights, with an October 23 maximum of 30°C and minimum of 23°C.
Meanwhile, weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū said seasonal models suggested continued above-normal warmth through late 2026 and early 2027. The projections put temperatures between 0.5°C and 1.5°C above normal.
He indicated that daytime temperatures could range from 28°C to 30°C, with some locations exceeding 30°C.
Sunshine heats roads, rooftops and buildings during the day, and these surfaces release stored heat after sunset. Cloud cover can also slow cooling by limiting heat loss from the Earth’s surface.
Together, these conditions can keep homes and outdoor spaces uncomfortable well into the night.
Delayed short rains and uneven showers
Kenya is entering the October-to-December short-rains season, but atmospheric conditions have affected rainfall onset and distribution.
Hannah Kimani, Director of Public Weather Services at the Kenya Meteorological Service, explained the disruption. She said low-pressure systems over the northern Indian Ocean had affected the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
This rain-bearing zone normally shifts southwards during the season, bringing rainfall to many parts of Kenya. However, the disruption has contributed to delayed rain in some areas.
Meanwhile, dry ground leaves loose dust that strong winds can lift, offering a possible explanation for Nairobi’s dusty conditions.
The service’s October 22–29 forecast anticipated rain in parts of 45 counties, including Nairobi and Marsabit. It also warned that isolated storms could cause flash floods in Mandera, Wajir, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale.
However, forecasters expect uneven rainfall, with some places receiving showers while others remain dry.
