Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna leads Ruto in four regions in TIFA’s November 2026 survey.
Sifuna also leads in South Rift, while Ruto holds the advantage in four regions and Kalonzo Musyoka dominates Lower Eastern.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna leads President William Ruto in four regions in the November 2026 TIFA regional poll. The survey measures preferences for the winner of Kenya’s 2027 presidential election.
Sifuna holds the advantage in Western, Nairobi, Mt Kenya and South Rift. Ruto, meanwhile, leads the senator in Northern Kenya, Central Rift, Coast and Nyanza.
TIFA regional poll shows contrasting support
Western Kenya gives Sifuna his strongest regional backing at 55 per cent, compared with Ruto’s 25 per cent. The senator also leads in Nairobi, attracting 39 per cent against the President’s 13 per cent.
In Mt Kenya, Sifuna records 32 per cent support, while Ruto has 11 per cent. South Rift presents a narrower gap, with the senator at 33 per cent against Ruto’s 29 per cent.
However, Ruto leads in Coast with 40 per cent, compared with Sifuna’s 36 per cent. The President also holds a four-point advantage in Nyanza, drawing 35 per cent against the senator’s 31 per cent.
Ruto’s strongest regions and Kalonzo’s Lower Eastern lead
Northern Kenya gives Ruto his highest regional support at 62 per cent, against Sifuna’s 20 per cent. The President also commands a substantial lead in Central Rift, with 59 per cent against the senator’s 16 per cent.
Meanwhile, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka leads both politicians in Lower Eastern, attracting 55 per cent support. Ruto follows with 20 per cent, while Sifuna records 8 per cent.
The regional preferences sit alongside two constitutional requirements for winning the presidency. Under Article 138(4), a candidate must secure more than half of all presidential votes cast. They must also receive at least 25 per cent of votes in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties.
