The latest demographic survey shows wide county differences, later peak childbearing and longer gaps between births.
The Kenya fertility rate has fallen to 3.1 children per woman, while county figures reveal sharp differences. Mandera records the highest rate at 6.8 children, compared with Embu’s lowest figure of 2.2.
The Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey (KMDHS) 2025/2026 puts the national figure below 3.4 in 2022. It also marks a decline from 4.9 children per woman in 2003.
Kenya fertility rate varies by education and wealth
The total fertility rate estimates how many children a woman would have over her lifetime if current fertility levels continued. However, 31 of Kenya’s 47 counties exceed the national estimate of 3.1 children per woman.
The survey also shows lower fertility among women with higher education levels and greater household wealth. Women with no education record 5.4 children, compared with 2.7 among those educated beyond secondary school.
Similarly, women in the lowest household wealth group record 4.5 children, against 2.3 in the highest group. Rural fertility fell from 5.4 to 3.6 between the three-year periods preceding the 2003 and 2025/2026 surveys. Meanwhile, urban fertility declined more gradually, from 3.3 to 2.6.
Peak childbearing shifts to older age group
Fertility now peaks among women aged 25–29, at 161 births per 1,000 women. By comparison, earlier surveys placed the peak among women aged 20–24. The current rate for girls aged 15–19 stands at 63 births per 1,000.
Among women aged 25–49, the median age at first birth is 20.9 years. However, it rises from 19.8 among women with no education to 24.3 among those educated beyond secondary school.
Wealth also tracks differences in the timing of first births. The median ranges from 19.4 years in the lowest wealth group to 23 in the highest. Across counties, Kiambu records the highest median at 22.5 years, while Homa Bay has the lowest at 18.6.
Birth intervals lengthen, but teenage pregnancy remains a concern
The median gap between births has increased to 46.3 months, from 32.6 months in 2003. Only 14 per cent of births now occur within 24 months of the previous birth.
Mandera has the shortest median interval at 24.8 months, while Embu records the longest at 68.5 months. Intervals are also longer in urban areas, at 49.8 months, compared with 43.4 months in rural areas.
Meanwhile, the survey identifies teenage pregnancy and motherhood as continuing public health and social concerns. Twelve per cent of girls aged 15–19 have ever been pregnant, and 9 per cent have had a live birth.
West Pokot records the highest teenage pregnancy rate at 25 per cent, followed by Migori at 23 per cent. In contrast, Isiolo records the lowest rate at 3 per cent.
