Kenya Met expects warmer-than-average November temperatures in Nairobi despite increased rainfall.
Kenya Met forecasts warmer-than-average conditions in Nairobi and other counties, alongside heavier rain and increased flood risks.
Nairobi will experience above-average November heat despite forecasts of increased rainfall, Kenya Met has said. Kiambu and Murang’a will also record warmer-than-usual conditions, with mean temperatures ranging between 20°C and 30°C.
The monthly outlook comes amid residents’ concerns about high temperatures in the capital. Meanwhile, the October–December short rains season continues, with above-average rainfall expected in Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru and other counties.
Why November heat will persist
Kenya Met linked the relatively high temperatures to the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone across East Africa. It also cited increasing humidity and cloud cover associated with the rainfall season.
Beyond Nairobi, the forecast points to similar weather in Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi. Minimum temperatures during the month will range between 4°C and 20°C, bringing considerable differences in overnight conditions.
Nakuru will also experience warmer-than-average weather, with maximum temperatures ranging between 20°C and 30°C. Its minimum temperatures will fall between 8°C and 20°C.
However, the highlands will generally have the coolest conditions, with mean temperatures between 15°C and 20°C. By contrast, mean temperatures in arid and semi-arid lowlands will likely exceed 28°C.
Hotter lowlands and rainfall risks
Temperatures could reach 35°C in Kajiado, Machakos, Mombasa, Kitui, Makueni and Taita Taveta. Inland areas of Tana River County will also experience temperatures reaching that level during November.
Meanwhile, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu will record minimum temperatures between 20°C and 25°C. The coastal outlook therefore points to warm conditions extending into the cooler parts of the day.
Alongside the temperature outlook, Kenya Met warned that increased rainfall could disrupt transport, particularly in urban areas. Heavy rain may overwhelm drainage systems, leading to traffic congestion and other transport difficulties.
The department also cautioned that enhanced rainfall could increase flash floods and riverine flooding. Landslides and damage to infrastructure pose further risks in vulnerable areas during the wetter conditions.
